UZBEKISTAN’S ACCESSION TO THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION: EXPECTED EFFECTS ON FOREIGN TRADE AND EXPORT STRUCTURE

Abstract

The article analyses the accession of Uzbekistan to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its likely consequences for the country’s foreign trade. The application was first submitted in 1994, but the negotiations were frozen for about fifteen years and resumed only in 2020. By August 2026 Uzbekistan had concluded 31 of 34 bilateral market access agreements and set the goal of completing accession by the end of the year. The paper reviews empirical studies on how WTO membership affects trade and growth, describes the current state of Uzbekistan’s foreign trade, which reached USD 81.2 billion in 2025, and discusses the expected benefits and costs of membership. The main argument is that the largest gains will come not from lower tariffs abroad, which Uzbek exporters already face in most markets, but from the “lock-in” of domestic reforms and from access to the WTO dispute settlement system. At the same time, sectors that still rely on high import protection, as well as exporters of agricultural products that must meet stricter sanitary standards, will face adjustment costs. The article ends with recommendations for the post-accession period.